|
Alohapotts Maui Real Estate Advisor
|
|
Maui Real Estate Advisor |
||
Have the latest trends, analysis and information delivered to your inbox every month. Get your FREE subscription to the Maui Real Estate Advisor. Sign up here. |
Maui Real Estate Advisor Presented by Aloha Potts Issue 31, September 2008 Market Overview August
Aug Sales Sales Prior Month % Change Sales Prior Year % Change Homes 65 96 -32% 83 -22% Condos 50 63 -21% 115 -57% Land 3 7 -57% 10 -70%
Aug Median Price Median Prior Month % Change Median Prior Year % Change Homes 625,000 615,000 2% 639,996 -2% Condos 632,500 575,000 10% 592,000 7% Land 425,010 1,025,000 -59% 662,500 -36%
Aug Current Inventory Inventory Last Month % change Months of available inventory Homes 1,092 1,069 2% 11.38 Condos 1,552 1,508 3% 24.63 Sales slower still Get ready for more of the same It seems like the real estate market in most of the US is a buyer’s market. Here on Maui sales of all kinds of property are slow, slow, slow. But the prices, at least the median prices, remain as solid as this rock in the Pacific that we live on. That doesn’t mean there aren’t deals. We are seeing an increase in the number of short sales and foreclosures, and a lot of sellers are “getting real” in the slow market. It’s a great time to buy. Condo sales rebound slightly Sales volume still well below “normal” Those hoping for July’s rebound to carry over to August were sorely disappointed. After a lackluster June and July, only 50 condominium sales were recorded on Maui in August. Compare that 50 sales to 115 one year ago and 187 in 2005. In most markets that kind of sales decline coupled with rising inventories (we now have enough condos on the market to last for over 2 years at this sales rate) would surely result in lower selling prices. But the median rose to $632,500. That is not only the highest price this year but it is the 3rd highest price since 2003. In June of 2006 the median price spiked to $649,000 and in November of 2007, the median came in at $640,156. As usual, the devil is in the details. 17 of our 50 sales were in Wailea. The median price of the properties sold there was $2,350,000, and they were never in the MLS, so they show they were on the market zero days. If we pull Wailea out of the stats, we see there were only 33 sales. The median for those condo sales was only $410,000, which is down $105,000 from the median in July with the same adjustments applied. So maybe prices really are declining and are masked by the impact of Wailea. Maybe the “Wailea adjusted median”, the WAM, will become one of our new sales metrics. Area Sales Condo sales in Wailea held steady in August with 17. Kihei sales, however, slumped to only 15. That was down from 26 the previous month and 52 in August of 2007. The median sales price was also off by $95,000 compared to last year. Once again only 8 sales recorded in Napili – Honokowai, the same as last month. That’s down from 18 a year ago. The median price was up by about $11,000. Kaanapali recorded 3 sales, but the median there was only $625,000, off by 57% from last year. Kapalua recorded zero sales, and Lahaina had one distress sale. High and Lows For the third month in a row there were no sales at Harbor Lights. That trend won’t continue, as I’ve seen one closing in September already recorded. The lowest price paid for a condo this month was at Kihei Shores. It was a 2 bedroom, 1.25 bath. It was listed for $185,000 and sold for $185,000. At $2,995,000, the spendiest condo was at Papali Wailea. The condo is a 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath. What I can tell you about Papali is that the project is nearing completion and they have a really annoying website that tells you nothing. There are now 42 Harbor Lights on the market. They are the lowest priced properties on Maui by a good margin. Yet there were no sales for 3 months. There has been one sale registered for September, but there are no more pending. The reason? The lowest priced units are short sales. Lending institutions and service companies are taking a very long time to respond on short sales. And if short sales, listed at very low prices, are on the market they make it hard for normal “market priced” non-short sales to move. Twenty-eight of the 35 lowest priced condos in Maui are at Harbor Lights. Yet there have been no sales in the last 2 months, and there are no pending sales. We have a pretty good idea of what’s going on. We’ll give you some details next month. Something that looks to be pretty affordable that you can live in is Iao Parkside IV-C. It is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 2 parking spaces listed at $329,000. It is #333241 in the Maui MLS. For this month’s best buy we are featuring a short sale at aina nalu. This one bedroom one bath originally sold for $475,000. It is on the market for $360,000. The unit is almost new, fully furnished and has very good rental income. See it at www.AlohaPotts.com at MLS #333469. Our favorite upscale listing this month is at the new complex, Honua Kai. This is a large 2 bedroom unit near the front of the building with fabulous views. The price is only $1,399,000. Buying a resale at Honua Kai can be tricky, and you need an agent that knows what he or she is doing or you could have issues. You can see the full listing on our website, MLS #333517. For more information on these or any other listings send an email with your request to lee@alohapotts.com or, see all of the listings on Maui at www.alohapotts.com. Homes sales drop August sales 2nd lowest this year After a few good months, single family home sales declined to their lowest level since January. Of the 66 homes sold, 32 were new project sales. Seventeen of the new project sales were classified as “affordable”. So, there were only 34 resales, which means selling is very slow for folks that want to sell. Overall the median price was up slightly to $625,000. That is the highest median price since January. How can it be that in a market where sales are sinking median prices are still holding? More curious, although is makes statistical sense, is that median prices in Wailuku rose even though half of the sales there were “affordables”. Even more curious, is that if you remove the affordables from the mix the median price climbs all the way to $800,000. There is a similar effect on DOM, Days on Market. With the new development properties in the mix the DOM is 161. Remove them and the DOM climbs to 195. Could this be good news if you need to sell? If you want to sell the oddly high prices in the rest of the market may present an opportunity for a serious seller. Area Sales The Central area of Kahului/Wailuku accounted for more than half of sales last month. Half of those were the aforementioned affordables. No other market area had double digit sales. Kihei reported only 8 sales and the next highest area was Lahaina with 3 sales. Highs and Lows Aside from the affordables, the lowest priced home to sell was in Makawao. It is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath home of 864 square feet with a “non-conforming” ohana that sold for $390,000. In Lahaina a 4 bedroom, 4 bath home of 3,844 square feet in the Launiupoko area sold for $3,400,000. Potts’ Picks A new 4 bedroom, 1.5 bath came to market in Kihei at $432,000, and it’s already had one price reduction. The new price is $386,000. This short sale property appears to be in pretty good condition and is in a good location. If you would like to see it the MLS # is 333228. For luxury, how about 11,076 square foot home on Kaanapali Beach. That’s right, 11,076 square feet; 8 bedrooms, 9.5 baths with pools and Pacific in your backyard. It’s MLS #332824 and the asking price is a cool $23,800,000. For more information on these or any other listings send an email with your request to lee@alohapotts.com, or see all of the listings on Maui at www.alohapotts.com . Lot sales still slow Inventory still rising There are now 539 parcels of land for sale on Maui. Only 3 sold last month. If you run the sales to inventory numbers on that you’ll see that there are enough lots for sale to last roughly… forever. For more information on vacant land, see all of the listings on Maui at www.alohapotts.com or send an email with your request to lee@alohapotts.com. Maui Real Estate Advisor Presented by Aloha Potts Issue 30, August 2008
July
Sales
Sales Prior Month
% Change
Sales Prior Year
% Change
Homes 96 74 30% 86 12% Condos 63 53 19% 99 -36% Land 7 11 -36% 13 -46% July
Median Price
Median Prior Month
% Change
Median Prior Year
% Change
Homes 615,000 616,000 0% 650,000 -5% Condos 575,000 580,000 -1% 510,000 13% Land 1,025,000 700,000 46% 575,000 78% July
Current Inventory
Inventory Last Month
% change
Months of available inventory
Homes 1,092 1,069 2% 11.38 Condos 1,552 1,508 3% 24.63
And so are real estate sales
Slow and flat. That sounds like a bad day for surfing, but it really describes the trend that our real estate market has settled into this year. Since July of 2007, home sales have averaged about 83 units per month. This year, they’ve been erratic, but steady. That means we have 70 plus one month, 90 plus the next month. The result, still about 83 per month, and the median price has hovered from the high $500,000’s to the low $600,000’s. For condos, the trend has been much the same. Sales slowed in November of ’07, but remained steady until this June. Overall, median condo prices have hovered at around $575,000. So, condo sales are slowing, but the prices are holding. Home sales are up and down, but steady overall. From my perspective, it’s like lying on my board waiting for the next set to come in. It takes patience, but like sets of waves, the
Condo sales rebound slightly
Sales volume still well below “normal”
Condo sales rebounded slightly in July. That’s good news, because June was the slowest month in over 5 years. Median prices are holding - but the median is a general measure of the market, and such generalizations may not be valid for a given property. Prices appear to be rising in some complexes that are viewed as more desirable and declining in some less desirable properties. In some properties, depending on the location, i.e., ocean view versus garden view or next to the pool versus next to the road, we see price fluctuations. So while the median is a good global measure, buyers and sellers are wise to study the activity in any given complex and consult with their REALTORs to set a selling price or make an offer. Days on market for sales dropped to 167 in July. However, we still have enough inventory to carry us through the next 2+ years at the current sales pace.
Area Sales July sales in both Wailea and Kihei rebounded over June sales. The rest of the island was zero to slow. Kihei was tops with 26 sales at a median price of $365,500. The sales include some short sales which impacted the median, dragging it well below the median for
Wailea, Kihei’s richer next door neighbor, had the second highest number of sales for the month. At $2,398,851, the median price in Wailea was over $2 million higher than Kihei. Over half of the sales in Wailea were in Hoolei, one of the new complexes that is carrying much of the sales load for the area. If we remove Kihei and Wailea from the mix, we see that there were only 19 sales on the rest of
There were only 8 sales recorded in Napili – Honokowai, a historically strong market. More notable perhaps is zero sales in Kaanapali, 1 in Kapalua and one, a bank owned property, in Lahaina.
High and Lows
Last month I said it was a little freaky that there were no sales at Harbor Lights. Well this month, despite prices as low as $75,000, again no condos sold. The lowest price paid for a condo this month was for a leasehold studio at
The high water mark was again at Hoolei. This buyer picked up a 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath of 2,619 square feet for $3,248,000. Potts’ Picks – Best Buys
Twenty-eight of the 35 lowest priced condos in
If you are looking for a low entry point condo for a rental or a first home and you don’t mind a little work, take a look at Maui Tradewinds in Honokowai on
For a vacation condo or second home, there is a condo deal at aina nalu. This is a short sale, so it probably will require some patience, but patience is part of the game for an investor. This is a 2/2 unit I 103 priced at only $409,000. The last 2/2 to sell at aina nalu that was not a short sale went for $505,000 in May and was appraised for $515,000. You can see the short sale at our website, MLS #330206. For luxury, we like a 2/2 with a den at Wailea Beach Villas. It is a 1978 square foot penthouse with ocean views in a luxury development and is listed for $3,250,000.. You can see the full listing on our website, MLS #328754. For more information on these or any other listings send an email with your request to lee@alohapotts.com or, see all of the listings on
Homes sales bounce back
August sales 2nd highest in a year
Sales of single family homes rebounded in July. Ninety-six homes sold, which was the second highest number of sales this year and the second highest since June of ’07. Nineteen, or 20%, of the homes sold were categorized as affordable sales in a new development,
For everyone else, the median selling price was $615,000 which is in line with where it has been since August of last year. If we discount the affordables, the median is $716,000, virtually the same as last month. Area Sales The Central area of Kahului/Wailuku comprised 41% of sales last month. Half of those were the aforementioned affordables. Sales in Kihei more than doubled in July over June, and also showed a sales increase over July of 2007. Kihei’s median price did come down from $810,000 in June to $764,801 in July, but that’s still ahead of the median from a year ago. New projects, not the affordable kind, had a big impact on Kihei’s overall sales volume. Fourteen of the 23 units sold, 58%, were new homes. As was the case last month,
In other notable areas, Lahaina had only 1 sale, Kapalua 1 and Kaanapali had 2 sales. Highs and Lows The lowest price for a home in July, outside the affordables, was $250,000 for a 3/2 of 864 square feet in Wailuku. It was sold “as is.” The other end of the market shows that there is still real money moving on
Potts’ Picks
One of the best buys we’ve seen this year is back on the market. It is a 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home in Napili, now listed for $499,000. This house was in escrow, and we understand the financing fell through, so you get another shot. This is in the MLS #327346. For investors or first time home buyers, we like a new listing in Pukalani. This listing is actually 2 houses, a 3/1.5 and a 3/1 on one lot. They are currently rented on a month-to-month basis. The 3/1.5 gets $1,800 and the other gets $1,400. This is MLS #332786 listed for $680,000. For something a bit more upscale we like the family compound in Ku’au, near Paia. The compound includes 3 structures, including a total of 12 bedrooms and 13 bathrooms. The main house is almost 5,000 square feet and the guest homes amount to another 3,500 square feet. It is a across the street from a nice, but little used beach. The asking price is $5,750,000 and this is MLS #326730. For more information on these or any other listings send an email with your request to lee@alohapotts.com, or see all of the listings on
Inventory still rising
Potts’ Picks – Best Buys
Market Overview July
However, with just 63 units sold, July was the second slowest month in 5 years. And, if history is any example, these numbers don’t bode well for sellers, because historically August has been slower than June
and July.
Last month there were only 7 lots sold. At that rate, it will take almost 6 ½ years to sell off the current inventory.
Two of the 7 lots sold were commercial property, with the larger one, 1.7 acres, selling for $2.7M. And 4 of the 7 went for over $1M.
Potts’ Picks
One of the more interesting high end listings is MLS #332734. This is a gated 10.15acre lot, actually 2 lots being sold as one, oceanfront off the Hana Highway about 2 miles out of Paia. For an asking price of $4.4 million, this has a lot of potential.
Another property we like is a “low” priced Launiupoko ocean view lot priced at $699,000. It’s MLS #328168, it’s 2 acres and a great spot for a cottage.
For more information on vacant land, see all of the listings on
Get more information and details
To get more information on property and trends, you can search all properties listed for sale at www.alohapotts.com. If you can’t find what you’re looking for there, send us an email at lee@alohapotts.com, and we’ll do our best to get an answer for you. As we get more requests for information, we’ll add new sections to the website, newsletter or both.
info@AlohaPotts.com
Copyright . alohapotts.com. All rights reserved.
Aloha Potts.com, Inc.
